A 2018 second quarter country report by the Economics Intelligence Unit (EIU) has said incumbent President Peter Mutharika will be re-elected in the May 21 2019 Tripartite Elections despite challenges the country is facing.
But the report, which was issued on Wednesday, cites high living costs, corruption scandals and authorities’ limited capacity to respond to economic challenges facing the country as some of the factors that may fuel popular resentment towards Mutharika.
However, the report lists the signing of a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) among the achievements of the current administration.
“The approval by the IMF in April of a new three-year extended credit facility (ECF) will help to boost donor confidence in the government ’s economic management. This follows the widespread aid freezes that occurred in 2013/16, prompted by donor concerns over corruption and fiscal laxity. Nonetheless, although aid will increase, a legacy of graft and persistent institutional weaknesses within some ministries means that it will not reach past levels,” reads part of the report.
The report says divisions within the opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) will impede its ability to become the largest political grouping in the National Assembly.
However, MCP Publicity Secretary, Reverend Maurice Munthali, has trashed the report.
“We, as MCP, are not shaken by it; neither are we surprised by it [EIU report] because this is the same organisation that predicted wrongly when former president Joyce Banda was in power [in 2014]. They goofed, they lied and they are lying again. The real, and true, reflection is what is happening to Malawians. People are tired, people are burdened and no institution is going to lie to Malawians that they will vote for this government again,” Munthali said.
The EIU argues that, though Mutharika is facing a growing challenge to his authority from his deputy, Saulos Chilima, he holds an upper hand over the latter.
But Chilima Movement spokesperson, Joseph Chidanti- Malunga, said Thursday that he doubts the trustworthiness of the prediction.
“You see, opinion polls sometimes do not represent the actual truth on the ground and, you know, results of an opinion poll sometimes reflect how the sampling was done. If you draw a biased sample, you are forced to find results that are not correct. We believe that if we are to do proper random sampling in this country, we will find that what they are saying is not correct. We believe that the other way is [true] on the ground.”
University of Malawi academic and Afrobarometer representative, Boniface Dulani, said projections from EIU depend on experts and not people on the ground and, as such, the incumbent has a default advantage.
“Because they [projections] have the incumbency advantage by default, they tend to give advantage to the ruling party. If you go back to 2013/14, their projections were that Joyce Banda would win. Personally, I do not read too much into it.
“I don’t think anyone should be celebrating yet because they have made that projection; the real projection is what will happen on May 21 next year. People get excited with these things, especially in the absence of any opinion data,” Dulani said.
Government spokesperson, Nicholas Dausi, described the findings as a welcome development.
“The EIU prediction vindicates that government has laid down programmes that are answering to the aspirations of Malawians. To mention a few, roads, bridges and the stability of the kwacha,” Dausi said.
EIU is a United Kingdom-based specialist publisher that serves companies and manages operations across national borders.
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