The London-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) on Wednesday this week released a report forecasting political violence ahead of the elections in Malawi next year.
The intelligence report says political stability will be undermined by a fragmented parliament and volatile politics.
But what surprised us, and many others, is the prediction that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and President Peter Mutharika would carry the day.
Predictably, excitement was the prevalent emotion for Minister of Information Nicholas Dausi, who believes that the EIU has vindicated the government and that the findings show that citizens are in love with the government’s policies.
However, it should not escape the minds of government and ruling party officials that EIU’s prediction in 2014 fooled the then president, Joyce Banda.
Whether that prediction made the People’s Party complacent is anyone’s guess but the fact remains that Banda lost the election to Mutharika when it looked like she was going to win by a landslide.
We, therefore, agree with political commentators who have said Mutharika and DPP have the incumbency advantage by default and therefore EIU tends to give advantage to the ruling party.
This is what happened in the 2013/2014 when projections were that Joyce Banda would win.
This should serve as a lesson to DPP. It should not read too much into the findings because a real projection is what will happen on May 21 next year.
We are also of the view that the London-based think-tank methodologies are not foolproof and do, therefore, not give insight into political realities on the ground.
The think tank never does a scientific survey but does analysis based on intelligence it gathers from multiple sources such as journalists, diplomats and other prominent sources. Sometimes, if not often, these have their inclinations.
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